Anthropic Danger
Forward reasoning (aimed at confirming whether the anthropic pressure attributed by a given territory is actually dangerous for the items present) was used for Anthropic Danger The anthropic phenomena identified as potentially responsible for the negative effects on the preservation of the cultural heritage were reducible to three thematic areas:
Dynamics of the demographic density (understood to mean depopulation and overpopulation). Pressures from tourism; Susceptibility to theft.
Danger Indexes
Five Danger Indexes were identified:
Depopulation generally leads to a worsening of the conditions of convenience (economic and social), monitoring, maintenance and development of the item, favouring its progressive and inevitable degradation.
Excessive increases in population on the other hand, by not guaranteeing those elements that are considered vital for the preservation and usability of the cultural item, results in a potentially harmful impact on the monument and on the area in which it is located.
Tourist use can pose a serious threat to the preservation of the cultural items, above all in the absence of services, structures and management policies. The tourist-cultural appeal of a municipality (measured in terms of the number of cultural items indicated by the T.C.I.) was taken into consideration for the index of pressures from tourism, as was the circulating mass of cultural tourism (measured in terms of the average number of visitors per annum to the most frequented art institute in a municipality).
The index of susceptibility to theft coincides with the normalised value of the total number of thefts recorded by Police (Carabinieri) Commands for the protection of the artistic heritage (TPA) between 1981 and 1992.
Sources of data
TERRITORY
Resident population by municipality (ISTAT 1951, 1991). Municipal surface area (ISTAT 1991). Use of land: urbanised, agricultural, forest, water areas (ISTAT 1991). Occupied and empty dwellings (ISTAT 1991). Dwellings by year of construction (ISTAT 1991).
Thematic maps